Press release

​A nationally representative Survation poll of 2,000 people commissioned by Channel 4 reveals:

 

• Reform's policies appeal not just because they tap into public anger. But also, because they break taboos. In our poll, 67% believe Reform says things others are afraid to say.

 

• 65% support Reform’s plan to return all channel migrants to France, more than any other policy from the party.  

 

• 58% think Reform UK risks bringing prejudice into debates about immigration. And our poll suggests Britain is evenly split on whether Reform is racist (42%).

 

• Reform shows the strongest voter loyalty, retaining 92% of their 2024 voters, the highest among all major parties, where both the Conservatives and Labour are retaining 73% and 72% of their 2024 vote, respectively.

 

• Voters across all major parties show high certainty in their current voting intention however, those intending to vote for Reform exhibit the highest levels of certainty in their vote intention

 

• The seat projection based on regional swing shows a hung parliament, with Labour winning 222 seats, Reform UK with 208 seats and the Conservatives winning 89 seats – just a 2-point swing could win Reform a majority and turn huge swathes of the country turquoise.

 

• Reform UK’s strength comes from 21% of 2024 Conservative voters now intending to vote for the party, and 14% of 2024 Labour voters.

 

• Full poll results available here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/iuxq0usriqybvajbix97l/National-Poll-Summary.docx?rlkey=jl6w5c13ebgwv1tz8qhn3bs8a&st=u7s61f0k&dl=0

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Quotes from the film:

 

• “All of politics is an aspiration if you really think about it,” Nigel Farage tells Fraser Nelson in response to whether he can deliver on his party’s pledge to remove all illegal immigrants. 

 

• Labour grandee Margaret Hodge has been advising MPs on how to counter the threat from Farage and his party: “I think everybody is right to be worried...But the response to it, at this point in the electoral cycle, must be to rebuild trust with our electorate, not to attack Farage. If you attack Farage, all you do is anger those people. I mean, my message when I talk to MPs is I say get back to your bloody constituency. All politics is local, and MPs have to understand that. If we don't do that, I think then we are in danger of seeing a charismatic individual who expresses populist ideas...gain greater power within our country.”

 

• Jacob Rees-Mogg says: "He has that great skill of understanding what the nation is thinking before they think it."

 

• Iain Duncan-Smith says: “All coalitions are feasible at the end of the day. I mean who would have thought we’d have formed a coalition with the Liberal party… don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is an aspiration for us, it's not, I know in the instinct of the Tory party is that they will reach for power at every single given occasion.”

 

• Nigel Farage, on joining forces with the Tories: “I only deal with people I trust. I don't trust them. After 2019, I’ve no trust in them whatsoever. I think you're witnessing the death of the party that's been dominant for a couple of hundred years.”
  [In 2019, as Brexit Party leader, Farage called for a pact with the Conservatives and stood his candidates down. Boris Johnson won, and the Brexit Party was wiped out.]
  Fraser Nelson: “So no deal with the Tories?”
  Nigel Farage: “No.”

 

• Jacob Rees-Mogg says: “It’s hard to think of an occasion when the Tory Party has been in greater difficulty. Council seats that we had held with huge majorities suddenly flipped to Reform. So, it’s very hard to pretend that the position is anything other than bad at the moment.”

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With exclusive access and a critical eye, this 1x60 film explores the rise of Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Fraser Nelson speaks to former Conservative cabinet ministers, disillusioned voters, Reform councillors and Farage himself – pressing him on his credibility, policies, and whether his promises are deliverable, or just another political mirage.

 

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POLICY, ASPIRATIONS & CREDIBILITY

 

Farage's policies include:

 

• Scrapping net zero

• Ending the DEI agenda

• Lifting the 2-child benefit cap

• Reindustrialise South Wales

• Raising the threshold for paying income tax to £20,000

 

These all aim to bring significant changes to the political landscape. However, his promises come with questions about feasibility and funding. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates Reform's promises could cost up to £80 billion per year.

 

Farage argues politics is built on aspirations, saying: “most of what I'm giving at the moment is direction of travel…We're going to be careful because too many fixed promises have been made and not delivered.”

Farage’s critics question whether a man who incites such strong emotions can effectively lead the country. As Fraser Nelson points out, "Proving his party is fit for power is one thing. How he might actually get there is quite another."

 

Nigel Farage remains optimistic about his political journey ahead, stating, "We are the party of working people. We want to reward people who are in work.”

 

In our poll, when our sample were presented with Reform UK's proposals to lift the Two-Child Benefit Cap, introduce a Transferable Tax Allowance for married couples, and raise income tax thresholds to £20,000 (basic) and £70,000 (higher-rate), 42% of respondents believed these policies could not be delivered without additional government borrowing, higher taxes, or spending cuts, while 37% thought they could be delivered without such measures, with 21% unsure.

 

When asked about funding, a clear majority (57%) said they would not be willing to pay more tax to support these policies, compared to 29% who said they would, with 14% being unsure.

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LOCAL GOVERNMENT AS TEST BED

 

Under Farage’s leadership, Reform has now gained over 600 councillors, controlling 10 county councils, two mayoralties, and even winning a safe Labour seat. But can it deliver? Fraser Nelson travels to Kent, where Reform now runs the country’s largest local authority (largest by population, 1.6 million people) with a nearly £1.5 billion budget –one of the many councils at risk of bankruptcy – and questions whether a party built on disruption can transition into government.

 

Nigel Farage has promised his party can reverse their fortunes, but few of his councillors have experience at this level. 

 

Kent Reform council leader Linden Kemkaran says:

“The stakes could not be higher. People are now going to view Kent as the shop window through which the idea of a Reform government will now be viewed by the electorate.”

 

Farage says local performance is the ultimate test:

“How we perform will make a material difference to how we're viewed running up to the next general election. Of that I have no doubt.” 

 

Iain Duncan-Smith says:

“Is this a protest party or is it about real government. They have to be able to show I think, as far as councils have the power to do those things, that they can hold together, that there are people who can lead them, at local level, and that that leadership delivers on what they said they would do. All these things are big challenges when you never expected to be in charge without a particular plan.”

 

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FOCUS GROUP: WHAT DO PEOPLE THINK OF FARAGE?

 

Fraser heads to Solihull, where Dispatches has commissioned a focus group made up of 10 undecided voters. 

 

Maureen works for the local Government. Like the rest of the group, she lives in a projected marginal that Farage will need to win if he’s to have a good chance of claiming a majority in the next general election. Maureen says:

“I voted for Labour because I've more or less been sort of a Labour and Liberal supporter over the years. But since they've come into power, I haven't really been impressed with them, they've done lots of sneaky things.”

 

Aston says:

“So I voted for Conservative…but I kind of sort of regretted my vote.”

 

Sophie works in a GP surgery. She decided not to vote in the last election, she says:

“I'll be honest, I think I've lost trust in politics. I think I was losing trust over the years, and especially after the Boris Johnson escapade and the Covid parties and such. I think if I was going to vote, I’d probably vote Reform.”

 

One of the biggest sources of votes of potential support for Reform are the people who didn't vote at the last election. 

 

Ricky is currently unemployed and has a familiar view of how effective governments have been in delivering improvements. He says:

“When have they ever delivered? Let's be realistic, whenever they ever delivered? The last year has really highlighted the reasons why we need a Reform, not just for the party but the whole government structure. It needs a reform, it needs refresh, it's old and dated, it's just not working anymore.”

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THE POLL

 

Full poll results available here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/iuxq0usriqybvajbix97l/National-Poll-Summary.docx?rlkey=jl6w5c13ebgwv1tz8qhn3bs8a&st=u7s61f0k&dl=0

 

Top 3 Policy Issues for Voters

 

1. The cost of living is the most important issue for voters, ranking 1st for 24% and appearing consistently across second and third choices (19% and 14%).

2. Health and the NHS are also a major concern, ranking highly across all three positions (15%, 18%, 14%).

3. Immigration stands out as the third most commonly ranked top issue (17% rank it 1st)

 

These 3 issues are ahead of the general economy (9%) and other issues like crime, housing, and the environment. Environmental concerns remain a lower priority, with only 5-6% ranking it in their top three.

 

Party trust in policy areas

 

Reform UK is currently seen as more trustworthy across many issues, particularly those related to crime, immigration, and defence, with lower associated distrust. Labour struggles with high distrust despite some strong areas, while the Conservatives sit in the middle with more stable but less enthusiastic trust levels.

 

• Reform UK scores the highest net trust across most policy areas, especially on crime (40%), defence (40%), and immigration (46%), with relatively low distrust levels (generally around 30%). It is perceived as more trustworthy than Labour and the Conservatives on issues like cost of living, health, and the economy.

 

• The Conservatives have more balanced trust/distrust ratings, with trust generally in the low-to-mid 30%s, and distrust slightly lower than Labour on most issues. Their strongest areas are defence (40%), jobs (39%), and pensions (39%).

 

• Labour has strong trust ratings on health and the NHS (38%), education (34%), and housing (34%), but also has the highest distrust levels overall, peaking at 49% on immigration and 47% on cost of living. Labour is generally more polarising than the Conservatives or Reform.

 

Reform’s rise appears to be fuelled by sustained public concern over immigration - 68% of those who voted for the party in 2024 cite it as one of their top 3 issues, as well as continued dissatisfaction with the political establishment.

 

Reform Policy Approval

 

When asked which Reform UK policies they support, respondents indicated the strongest support for their immigration and tax policies, while economic and social proposals (like scrapping DEI or environmental targets) were more divisive.

 

Reform UK's Voice Resonates with Straight Talk, But Extremism Worries Persist

 

Support for Reform UK is primarily driven by perceptions that the party is bravely outspoken and says things others are afraid to, with around two-thirds of Reform considerers agreeing with these sentiments. Many also see Reform as a mainstream party expressing views that reflect what most people think. However, even among potential supporters, there are significant concerns: 70% believe Reform needs to do more to avoid extreme candidates, and over half acknowledge risks of prejudice in its immigration rhetoric. While 42% agree the party is racist, this is evenly matched by those who disagree, highlighting a polarising reputation. Overall, Reform UK’s appeal lies in its anti-establishment voice, but this is tempered by worries about tone and extremism.

 

Infighting Party Perception

 

Nearly half of respondents (47%) believe Reform UK suffers from internal disagreements and infighting that could impact its effectiveness, while only 29% believe they do not, suggesting a significant perception of internal instability within the party.

 

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MEDIA & IMMIGRATION

 

Reform’s use of new media plays a central role in their surging popularity. Among British politicians, Nigel Farage is uniquely placed to communicate his message directly to the country.  

 

• He’s on 4 nights a week on GB news 

• He’s got 1.3 million TikTok followers too - more than all other MPs combined

 

Nigel Farage doesn’t need the mainstream media to reach voters. Reform can promise anything and publish it to a huge audience with little scrutiny. He defends his dual media-political role:

“I'm unconventional. I'm completely unconventional; I don't obey the rules that everybody else obeys. I do things my way.”

 

But what would he think if Kemi Badenoch presented BBC2's Politics Live? Nigel Farage says:

“Nobody would watch it! What would be the point?”

 

In Hamilton, we see Reform’s candidate Ross Lambie campaigning for a Scottish Parliamentary by-election the old-fashioned way, but it's social media that’s breaking through to previously unreachable voters.

 

Reform has no real party machine in Scotland. At the last election, it won just 58 votes in Hamilton. But its message of a broken Britain is an easy sell for voters in an economically deprived area like Hamilton.

 

Ross Lambie, who has stood as Reform’s candidate for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, but lost to Labour, went on to say:

“There's been a lost generation already in areas like this. You can see at the town centre's dilapidated; you know these buildings here have been closed for 14 years. People are not willing to accept another lost generation. There's an urgency in the people which the political establishment doesn't understand.”

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Social media changed the nature of this campaign. One Reform attack ad in particular. Reform paid for a targeted Facebook advert attacking the leader of Scottish Labour - Anas Sarwar, featuring clips from a speech Sarwar made. Watching the video of the whole speech Sarwar made at a community event, Fraser says it was misrepresented, asking Farage: “you misrepresented it as a sectarian speech”. Farage denies this is the case.

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Anas Sarwar tells Fraser: “I just think the poison of Nigel Farage will be rejected by people across Scotland. They are playing on people's fears; they are playing on a sense of hopelessness. and it also is ramped up by a pretty dangerous in some parts, I’m a big supporter of social media, but it is dangerous in some parts, social media algorithms.”

 

Fraser reflects that: “This is straight out of Trump’s playbook - Cause outrage, get people talking, drive critics wild.”

 

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NIGEL FARAGE – IN HIS OWN WORDS

 

Fraser met Nigel Farage in London at Reform HQ. In a rare extended interview with Dispatches, Farage is candid about his ambitions, his controversies, and his critics. In answer to whether he wants to be Prime Minister, Farage says:

“Why not? At least I believe in stuff. Everything we do will be based around family, community and country.”

 

He defends Reform’s controversial immigration pledges as goals, not guarantees: “All of politics is an aspiration if you think about it…If you think about it, every manifesto, every contract is actually an aspiration because you can never tell a war could break out all sorts of things could happen.”

 

Farage says, in response to concerns that Reform uses divisive politics, “I've been clear on this for 25 years. All the political iterations that I've run, the campaigns that I have been part of, I've never wanted anything to do with extremist politics in any way.”

 

Farage on funding his policies

 

Nigel Farage: I understand that between now and the next election there'll be lots of scrutiny about numbers, about what we say, about what we do, but let's make it clear that in terms of direction of travel. We are the party of working people. We want to reward people who are in work.

 

Fraser: But you accept that right now the figures don't add up, because you say it's not time to make them add up by the next election

 

Nigel Farage: Rachel Reeves's numbers don’t add up! Now, there is a massive debate and argument around the cost of net-zero, I get that. We'll have lots of fights. I need you to do that for me. Well, it could be 30, 40 billion. 

 

Fraser: In your manifesto, you said 20 billion.

 

Nigel Farage: It could be anywhere. Very, very hard to put a precise number on it. We will. Hone that down. Most of what I'm giving at the moment is direction of travel.

 

Farage on immigration

 

Fraser: Now, let's talk about another big pledge you've given to basically remove all the illegal immigrants. 1.2 million people / This sounds radical, but is it credible? 

 

Nigel Farage: Well, there's a hundred thousand in hotels that shouldn't be in the country at all. We have to aim high.

 

Fraser: Are you saying that you would like to or that you will? There's a big difference in politics. 

 

Nigel Farage: We are saying that is what we aim to do. Even if we get a long way towards it will still be a massive net gain for the country

 

Fraser: I understand – in politics, there’s a big difference between aspiration and pledges.

 

Nigel Farage: All of politics is an aspiration if you really think about it. 

 

Fraser: No, a promise is a promise.

 

Nigel Farage: We're going to be careful because too many fixed promises have been made and not delivered.

 

Fraser: Right, but there's a difference in what you say you will do and what you would like to do. People considering voting for Reform will need to know the difference between the two.

 

Nigel Farage: If you think about it, every manifesto, every contract is actually an aspiration because you can never tell a war could break out all sorts of things could happen.

 

After the meeting, Fraser reflects:

Well, I think I've solved the mystery of where the money is going to come from – it’s not going to come from anywhere because these aren't policies, they are aspirations. Now he was saying that all policy pledges are aspirations - not really that's what voters are sick of. Being led to believe that the government is going to do one thing, only to realise they didn't really mean it. I’m not sure that’s going to hold for now.

 

Farage on being divisive

 

Fraser: So, the voters that we spoke to in Solihull, their biggest concern was Reform can use divisive politics. By divisive, they pretty much meant racially divisive. Can I just say what - so a couple of them were saying – Maureen was saying, I don't like a party that's going to incite hate... And sometimes reform goes down that road. 

 

Nigel Farage: Well then, she's not going to vote for us anyway, so it's pointless.  

 

Fraser: No, this is someone who is absolutely considering voting for you.  

 

Nigel Farage: I very much doubt it. If people have that sort of inbuilt prejudice to a political party that says...  

 

Fraser: This wasn't a prejudice; this was a concern. These are people who see Muslims as their neighbours, as their countrymen, and they're not quite sure yet. Does Reform see Muslims as their neighbours and countrymen?  

 

Nigel Farage: Well, given that the chairman for the last year is a practising Muslim, I would have thought that wouldn’t you.

 

Fraser: But you’ll see how some of the language... 

 

Nigel Farage: No. I absolutely refute that in every way. I think if you look at what we say, if you look at [what] we do, which is more important than what you say, in terms of how I operate, who I work with, who rises to the top and takes positions in the party, you'll see we're a very meritocratic organisation… I've been clear on this for 25 years. All the political iterations that I've run, the campaigns that I have been part of, I've never wanted anything to do with extremist politics in any way. Ever, ever, ever.   

 

Fraser Nelson: Or race-baiting as a tactic.  

 

Nigel Farage: I've never done that. I promise you, you go through 25 years of speeches and you won't find it.  

 

Fraser: But the Hamilton campaign, though, there was that advert against Anas Sarwar, now he'd given a speech, basically a call for unity, saying that we aren't new Scots, we are Scots. We're here for generations. Scots first, Asians second, it was a call for unity.

 

Nigel Farage: I took it as a very, very sectarian speech. 

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Fraser: You misrepresented it as a sectarian speech.  

 

Nigel Farage: That's how I saw it. I saw it as a sectarian speech.  

 

Fraser: When he was saying you are Scots first and Pakistanis second, when he was laughing, mocking at the notion that Asians should be voting for any one political party... you saw that as sectarian? 

 

Nigel Farage: I did. I felt that it was talking to a particular group, saying look how powerful we are, look how influential we are. Look at what the future gives us. 

 

Fraser: As opposed to how integrated we are, look how embedded we are.

 

Nigel Farage: No, actually, I'd go slightly the other way, look how we're taking over all political parties, is kind of what he was saying. I don't think that's helpful. 

 

Farage on efficiency

 

Farage modelled his efficiency drive on Elon Musk's DOGE outfit in America, but that ended up finding a fraction of the savings Musk had promised.

 

Fraser:  Now, at the press conference last week, you were flanked by mayors, local government leaders, and you said something that jumped out at me.  You were saying, judge us in a year’s time, see what progress we’ve made..  A year?  What progress do you intend to make in a year?

 

Nigel Farage:  Well, let’s see.  You know, we’ve got the DOLGE (Department of Local Government Efficiency) department up and running.

 

Fraser: Are you still keen on that? Elon Musk’s hasn’t exactly gone to plan.

 

Nigel Farage: Oh no, we’re very very keen on that. In fact, what we are finding already is going to literally stun the nation... 

   

Fraser: But this is your audition for national government, isn't it? 

  

Nigel Farage: It is, absolutely. 

  

Fraser:  So, quite a lot will hang on whether you are actually... 

  

Nigel Farage: I agree. I agree. No, no, I mean look! How we perform will make a material difference to how we're viewed running up to the next general election. Of that I have no doubt.

 

Fraser:  Right, so later on, they say, well, they’ve run these councils, but you know what, after all this DOLGE stuff, they didn’t really manage to get efficiencies in these, they didn’t really manage to..

 

Nigel Farage: Well, what if we do? 

 

Fraser:  Well, I understand if they do!  But if you don’t, will they be entitled to think, well Farage is full of hot air.

 

Nigel Farage:  Ask me in a year! 

 

With local and devolved elections looming and Reform UK now regularly polling ahead of the Conservatives, this documentary raises urgent questions about who is really shaping Britain’s political future, and what happens when protest votes turn into real power.

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• CREDIT – Will Nigel Farage Be Prime Minister? Dispatches airs Thursday 26 June at 8pm on Channel 4

• TEASER - https://x.com/C4Dispatches/status/1936370601079247220  – Fraser Nelson asking Nigel Farage if he will make it to number 10 at the next election.

• PRESS CONTACT – Harpreet Gill