Reform without Farage?

It keeps over 80% of its support.

Before starting this film, I’d assumed that Reform without Nigel Farage would collapse like a soufflé. It was nowhere before him, I thought, and would probably be nothing without him. So if he quits, the project dies. But this was one of the two main takeaways from the Solihull focus group. First, that hope, not just despair, was driving their support for Reform. And second, that they had come to have faith in Reform as a party. Some even saw Farage as a liability, and thought his absence would make them more likely to vote Reform.

The Survation poll we commissioned found 26pc of likely voters saying they’d back Reform if an election were held tomorrow. And without Farage? 22 per cent. So the majority of its supporters would stay. This suggests the phenomenon we’re looking at is more than just one man and would, contrary to what I suspected, survive his departure.

This was a theme in the focus group: that Farage had a caustic, divisive tone. So the Reform radicalism, without the Farage tribalism? “I think out of the parties, Reform align [most] with my values,” said Jane. “But I don't actually like Nigel Farage. I don't like his delivery. And you get the wrong people, like, on his side. And you are going to have extremists.” She did not mean that Farage is an extremist, but that he seems to attract the sorts of people who give her pause. 

Sophie, now leaning to Reform after abstaining last year, said: “I think it's a bit like Marmite. You either love him or hate him. He can be considered to be sort of divisive.” Adrian saw him as too similar to other bombastic, and ergo, not really trustworthy, politicians. “Some of the stuff he comes out with is - it's not believable. You need politicians to be trustworthy, but a lot of them aren't.”

Tina pointed out that, without him, Reform would not be anywhere. “He hasn’t been a minister, but look, the guys that are experienced - look at what they’re turning out! So could he do any worse? Has very good business acumen, I believe, because he’s quite a successful businessman. It comes back to the Donald Trump thing. He's got the business brain, but he hasn’t got any diplomatic qualities. Maybe Nigel could soften his edge a little bit. Be more diplomatic with people and with situations.”

The Survation poll shows that Farage is a massive asset to Reform right now - but also that, without him, the party that Richard Tice started would still be strong. Not election-winning strong, but still about as strong as the Tories.